PERAMALAN DEBIT ALIRAN SUNGAI MENGGUNAKAN METODE NAÏVE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Studi Kasus Batang Ombilin)
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Date
2013-01-07
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Abstract
Increased water demand becomes the basis for prediction of critical water
availability in the future. It is very important to do a water resource management measures
to determine how trends and forecasting river flow conditions in the future. One effort is
the management of water resources by conservation efforts. Conservation of water
resources is an effort to maintain the existence and sustainability of the state, the nature
and function of water resources in order to continue to be available in sufficient quantity
and quality to meet the needs of living things, both at present and in the future. According
to the conditions above, the river flow forecasting can be a study. Therefor using the
availability of discharge data on Batang Ombilin do forecasting of water availability using
Naive Model and the Exponential Smoothing: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and
Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) to determine the model equations, the value of α and
β of the match on Batang Ombilin and the reliability of the model. Inflow data used is a
monthly average data year 2003-2010. Forecasting to vary the length of data that is input
1 to 6 years and specifically for SES and DES have the calibration and verification. The
result shows that of the three models, which are suitable for the study area is SES than the
other models.
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Keywords
Forecasting, Naïve Model, Exponential Smoothing, Catchment Area