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PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH DAN BERAS BULANAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN METODE ARIMA DAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS
(Elfitra, 2024-01) Fadliansyah, Hery; Bustami, Bustami
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method is a method that combines Autoregressive and Moving Average forecasting models with differencing, generally expressed as ARIMA(𝑝, 𝑑, 𝑞). The Holt-Winters method or Triple Exponential Smoothing is a smoothing method based on three smoothing parameters, each element, namely α (level), β (trend smoothing), and γ (seasonal index). The ARIMA and Holt- Winters methods in this research are used for forecasting analysis of monthly prices of grain and rice in Indonesia with data for the period January 2013 to July 2022. The study shows that forecasting using the ARIMA method is better than the Holt-Winters method in this research based on accuracy values smaller RMSE
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IURAN NORMAL DANA PENSIUN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AGGREGATE COST DAN PROJECTED UNIT CREDIT BERDASARKAN DISTRIBUSI WEIBULL
(Elfitra, 2024-01) Yelni, Fitri Susrida
A worker really longs for guaranteed life in old age. A worker is not always in optimal condition. So a worker must have a plan from the start in order to guarantee future prosperity when entering retirement age. One of the solutions is by joining a pension fund program. The aim of this research is to determine the present value of pension benefits, normal contributions using two methods, namely the aggregate cost method and projected unit credit based on the Weibull distrubution. Weibull distribution parameter estimates are determined using the maximum likelihood estimation and then determined using the Newton-Raphson iteration method. The soluting to the problem is obtained by determining the initial lifetime annuity. Initial term life annuity, then the present value of pension benefits. Normal contributions using the Aggregate Cost method basade on the Weibull distribution are smaller than normal contributions using the Projected Unit Credit method basad on the weibull distribution.
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SINTESIS SENYAWA PIRAZOLIN 4-(5-(3-METOKSIFENIL)- 1-(4-NITROFENIL)-4,5-DIHIDRO-1H-PIRAZOL-3-IL)FENOL
(Elfitra, 2024-01) Pratiwi, Dwi Panji; Jasril, Jasril
Pyrazolin is a five-loop heterocyclic compound that has two nitrogen atoms in its ring and contains one endocyclic double bond. Pyrazoline compound 4-(5-(3- methoxyphenyl)-1-(4-nitrophenyl)-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole-3-yl)phenol (P3OME-4OH -4NTR) had been synthesized in three-step of reaction process. The first step of formation of chalcone compounds uses the microwave irradiation method with a yield of 54%. The second step of formation of the compound (4-nitrophenyl)hydrazine uses the heating stirrer method with a yield of 84%. The last stage of formation of P3OME- 4OH-4NTR compound using the heating stirrer method with a yield of 77%. The purity of the compound P3OME-4OH-4NTR was tested by measuring melting point, TLC and HPLC analysis and compound structure was confirmed using UV and FTIR spectroscopic characterization.
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PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH DAN BERAS BULANAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN METODE ARIMA DAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS
(Elfitra, 2024-01) Fadliansyah, Hery; Bustam, Bustam
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method is a method that combines Autoregressive and Moving Average forecasting models with differencing, generally expressed as ARIMA(𝑝, 𝑑, 𝑞). The Holt-Winters method or Triple Exponential Smoothing is a smoothing method based on three smoothing parameters, each element, namely α (level), β (trend smoothing), and γ (seasonal index). The ARIMA and Holt- Winters methods in this research are used for forecasting analysis of monthly prices of grain and rice in Indonesia with data for the period January 2013 to July 2022. The study shows that forecasting using the ARIMA method is better than the Holt-Winters method in this research based on accuracy values smaller RMSE.
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IURAN NORMAL DANA PENSIUN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AGGREGATE COST DAN PROJECTED UNIT CREDIT BERDASARKAN DISTRIBUSI WEIBULL
(Elfitra, 2024-01) Yelni, Fitri Susrida
A worker really longs for guaranteed life in old age. A worker is not always in optimal condition. So a worker must have a plan from the start in order to guarantee future prosperity when entering retirement age. One of the solutions is by joining a pension fund program. The aim of this research is to determine the present value of pension benefits, normal contributions using two methods, namely the aggregate cost method and projected unit credit based on the Weibull distrubution. Weibull distribution parameter estimates are determined using the maximum likelihood estimation and then determined using the Newton-Raphson iteration method. The soluting to the problem is obtained by determining the initial lifetime annuity. Initial term life annuity, then the present value of pension benefits. Normal contributions using the Aggregate Cost method basade on the Weibull distribution are smaller than normal contributions using the Projected Unit Credit method basad on the weibull distribution.