Abstract:
The stock price is an indicator of the success of a company. The higher and more stable
the stock price, the better the company's value in the market. Shares are proof of
ownership of capital invested by investors. The purpose of this study is to predict the
stock price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk using the decomposition method. The
decomposition method is a time series data forecasting method that uses four
components, namely seasonality, trend, cycles, and errors provided that the data
contains trend and seasonal patterns. This study uses economic and business data
regarding the closing price of shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk for the period 2018 –
2022. The results of this study obtained that the multiplicative model decomposition
method is an excellent model with a MAPE acquisition of 3.81%. Stock price
forecasting for the next period has increased with a tendency to decrease every June.
