Abstract:
The Indonesian government made a policy to reduce the spread of the coronavirus by
restricting entry/exit to Indonesian territory. As a result, there is a decrease in the
number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. The decrease in the data pattern was
studied using the ARIMA Intervention method. The ARIMA Intervention method is
used to see how big and duration of the impact of entry/exit restrictions due to the
Covid-19 pandemic on the number of foreign tourists in Indonesia. Forecasting results
for August 2020 until May 2021 were obtained with a MAPE value of 9.74%. ARIMA
Intervention is classified as very good in predicting the number of foreign tourists in
Indonesia because it produces a MAPE value of less than 10%.
