Browsing by Author "Suprayogi Imam"
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Item ANALISIS HUJAN ALIRAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL IHACRES (Studi Kasus DAS Indragiri)(2013-07-16) Wibowo, Ryan Ardhi; Suprayogi Imam; Handayani Yohanna LilisHydrological phenomena are very complex and difficult to be understood completely, so it needs a simplification in the form of model. IHACRES model is one of the well known rainfall-runoff model that have been successful in investigating the hydrological response of the various watersheds around the world. The existence of this success, it is necessary to research the reliability of the IHACRES model in Indonesia, namely in the Indragiri watershed. This model is calibrated, verified and simulated based on discharge data recording at Lubuk Ambacang station for 10 years (1995-2004) and then validated against discharge data at Pulau Berhalo station. This research was conducted by varying the length of data is grouped into scheme 1 until scheme 8. The research results show that the best scheme in calibration phase is scheme 3 (3 years calibration) with R2 value of 0,8140, while the verification phase, the best scheme is scheme 6 (6 years calibration) with R2 value of 0,5508. In the validation phase using the data in Pulau Berhalo station, scheme 7 (7 years calibration) showed better performance than scheme 3 and scheme 6 with R2 value 0.361 and bias 17.155 mm/year. Overall, the results of this research provide understanding that the success obtained in the calibration phase does not guarantee the success at verification phase.Item BANGKITAN DATA DEBIT PADA DAERAH PENGALIRAN SUNGAI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN METODE THOMAS - FIERING (STUDI KASUS: LUBUK AMBACANG –DAS INDRAGRI)(2013-01-16) Prasetio, Taufik Dwi; Suprayogi Imam; RinaldiThe purpose of this research is to generate flow data. This purpose was chosen considering the flow data stock is limited and complex for country like Indonesia and espescially in Riau province. In short term, hidrology data have not been able to represent the characteristics of river’s flow. Data elongation can be used to solve the lack of hidrology data. Data elongation can be done using the Thomas-Fiering method approach. The study done on Indragiri river in Riau province using data of AWLR Lubuk Ambacang station for the past 15 years. To examine the reliability Thomas-Fiering method, various data elongation simulation has been made. Then we used t-student test and correlation test. Result of t-test showed statistically no difference between real data (historical data) and generate data (synthetic data). Meanwhile correlation examnination showed the more historical data available, the better the correlationn, so principally generating synthetic flow data for Lubuk Ambacang station is verified.Item PERAMALAN DEBIT ALIRAN SUNGAI MENGGUNAKAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE (Studi Kasus Batang Ombilin)(2013-01-09) Hutasoit, Venny M.; Suprayogi Imam; Fauzi ManyukThe main objective of this research is forecasting the river flow in Batang Ombilin. Discharge forecasting is very important to be accommodated in the study of water availability to determine how the trend and forecasting river flow conditions in the future. Modeling approach used river flow forecasting process in Batang Ombilin was moving average. This model is a time series forecasting model with Qm for Windows 2. Research data sourced from secondary data Department of Public Works water resources sector with the length pf the data from 2003 to 2010. The results show that using the length of data 6 year using a weighted moving average model able to predict up to 2 months accordance with the conditions of field observation models.Item PERAMALAN DEBIT ALIRAN SUNGAI MENGGUNAKAN METODE NAÏVE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Studi Kasus Batang Ombilin)(2013-01-07) Indah, Sri Junita; Suprayogi Imam; Fauzi ManyukIncreased water demand becomes the basis for prediction of critical water availability in the future. It is very important to do a water resource management measures to determine how trends and forecasting river flow conditions in the future. One effort is the management of water resources by conservation efforts. Conservation of water resources is an effort to maintain the existence and sustainability of the state, the nature and function of water resources in order to continue to be available in sufficient quantity and quality to meet the needs of living things, both at present and in the future. According to the conditions above, the river flow forecasting can be a study. Therefor using the availability of discharge data on Batang Ombilin do forecasting of water availability using Naive Model and the Exponential Smoothing: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) to determine the model equations, the value of α and β of the match on Batang Ombilin and the reliability of the model. Inflow data used is a monthly average data year 2003-2010. Forecasting to vary the length of data that is input 1 to 6 years and specifically for SES and DES have the calibration and verification. The result shows that of the three models, which are suitable for the study area is SES than the other models.