Mathematics

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PERAMALAN INFLOW BULANAN UANG KARTAL DI BANK INDONESIA PROVINSI RIAU MENGGUNAKAN METODE SARIMA DAN ETS
(2021-02) Afifah, Adilla; Sirait, Haposan
The availability of currency at Bank Indonesia can be reviewed through the inflow of currency known as inflow. This study discusses forecasting monthly currency inflows at Bank Indonesia, Province Riau, where this study uses a univariate time series analysis. The method used in this study is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the Seasonal Error Trend (ETS). In the SARIMA method, the best models are SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,2,1)12 and ETS models which produces the best model, namely ETS (M,N,M). The study shows that the best forecast for currency inflow in Province Riau is obtained based on the error rate using the SARIMA method