PENERAPANMETODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA PERAMALAN INFLASI KOTA PEKANBARU
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Date
2023-07
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Elfitra
Abstract
Forecasting using the single exponential smoothing method is a time series forecasting
that has a horizontal data pattern. In this study the data used is inflation data. Based on
the pattern of time series data, the data obtained then analyzed with single exponential
method with several alpha smoothing constant values. Measurement of forecasting
accuracy for selecting the best model can be done by selecting the lowest forecasting error
value using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). This study shows that the
single exponential smoothing method with a smoothing constant alpha 0,3 has the
minimum MAPE value compared to other alpha smoothing constants. Forecasting results
using the exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant alpha 0,3 for the next
period shows that inflation rate in Pekanbaru City will decrease.
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Keywords
Time Series, forecasting, single exponential smoothing method, MAPE
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