PENGGUNAAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL UNTUK PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR NON MIGAS DI INDONESIA

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dc.contributor.authorThahira, Nisha
dc.contributor.supervisorBustami, Bustami
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-15T06:24:33Z
dc.date.available2022-06-15T06:24:33Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.description.abstractThe exponential smoothing forecasting method is one of the time series data forecasting methods. This study uses non-oil and gas export data in Indonesia for the period January 2015-May 2021 indicating that there are elements of trends and seasonality. Based on the characteristics of the time series, the data obtained were then analyzed using Holt's double exponential smoothing method and triple exponential smoothing consisting of multiplicative and Holt-Winters additives. The best model selection can be done by choosing the minimum forecast error value. This study shows that the additive Holt- Winters method is the best forecasting method that has a minimum forecast error value. The forecast results using this method indicate that the value of non-oil exports will increase for the next period.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipJurusan Matematika Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Riauen_US
dc.identifier.citationPerpustakaanen_US
dc.identifier.issnElfitra
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.unri.ac.id/handle/123456789/10525
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElfitraen_US
dc.subjectForecasten_US
dc.subjectnon-oil and gas exporten_US
dc.subjecttime seriesen_US
dc.subjectexponential smoothingen_US
dc.subjectHolt methoden_US
dc.subjectHolt-Winters methoden_US
dc.titlePENGGUNAAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL UNTUK PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR NON MIGAS DI INDONESIAen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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