SIMULASI DATA CURAH HUJAN HARIAN PADA DAS SIAK MENGGUNAKAN STOKASTIK RANTAI MARKOV

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict daily rainfall data and gain an overview of the parameters of daily rainfall simulation models to investigate two state, the dry state and the wet state. Analysis of daily rainfall simulation models in the Siak river basin consists of two main models, namely simulated rainy days and dry days and simulation of the rainfall with Markov chain . Daily rainfall data 1983 to 2011 is taken from the Badan Wilayah Sungai (BWS) III Riau Province. The stations are Buatan Station, Kandis Station, Pekanbaru station, Petapahan Baru station. Rainfall data were divided into 4 length data 10, 15, 20 and 28 years. Each time series was constructed such that the events in question had the same opportunities as continuos recording results. Rainfall simulation results were tested using Chi Square test. With the increase in length of data used, generally will result in the value of Chi-Square are smaller and have a smaller error rate. To predict rainfall 2011-2020 used 28 years of data length of each station on the Siak river basin.