ANALISIS FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN UNTUK MERAMALKAN NILAI TUKAR PETANI PROVINSI RIAU

Abstract

The agricultural sector is one of the primary sectors that become the main employment for the people of Indonesia, as well as the population of Riau Province who mostly live in rural areas by working in the agricultural sector. Farmers' welfare level can be measured by Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP). Forecasting can be done to predict NTP in the future. This study uses a forecasting method, namely fuzzy time series markov chain using NTP data from Riau Province in the period January 2013 - March 2022. The results of forecasting NTP Riau Province for the next period in April 2022 obtained 154.35 with a MAPE value of 1.3948%. The MAPE value shows that the results of forecasting NTP data in Riau Province can be categorized as very good because the MAPE value is less than 10%.