PEMODELAN HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN JUMLAH UANG YANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

Abstract

The most common economic problem in every country is inflation. Inflation can be defined as a condition where the price of an item and or service increases in general and is sustainable, which causes the price of other goods to also change. Indonesia is an oil importing country because oil products from Indonesia do not meet people's demands. If world oil prices increase, it will affect the economy in Indonesia. Money supply in a country can also effect on inflation. This research was conducted to model inflation using the variables of world oil prices and money supply in Indonesia. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In ARDL modeling the data must be stationary and not cointegrated between variables. After testing the variables, we found that there is no cointegration among the variables. Variables that significantly effects are inflation in the previous month and inflation in the previous two months. The form of the model obtained is = 0.003163 + 1.165771 𝑌𝑡−1 − 0.221558 𝑌𝑡−2.