PEMODELAN EKSPOR IMPOR PDRB PROVINSI RIAU TAHUN 2010 – 2019 MENGGUNAKAN VAR DAN VECM

Abstract

This research aims to model the corresponding relationships GRDP import and export variables using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used is sourced from Riau publication data in figures from the Central Statistics Agency for Riau Province in 2010 – 2019. The data analysis in this study uses Rstudio 4.0.2 software. Based on the analysis conducted, it is found that the endogenous variables that most influence changes in exports are the import and GRDP variables in the previous period. The endogenous variables that most influence changes in imports are the export variables of the previous period, while those that most influence changes in GRDP are the import variables and the export variables in the previous period. The results showed that the best model for export, import and GRDP variables was the VECM model.