PERAMALAN HARGA TANDAN BUAH SEGAR KELAPA SAWIT DI PROVINSI RIAU MENGGUNAKAN MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE

Abstract

This article discusses the forecasting methods using the ARIMA model based on the year Masehi and Hijriah. This method is used to predict the price of oil palm FFB in Riau Province. In the discussion of this method there are several models, namely the model (i) ARIMA(2, 1, 0)(1, 1, 1)52, (ii) ARIMA(1, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)52 and (iii) ARIMA(2, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)52. After the ARIMA models of the year Masehi and Hijriah are obtained, then an ARIMA model is selected, that is the one which has the smallest MSE value.