PREDIKSI PENJUALAN BARANG MENGGUNAKAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO PADA NANA PETSHOP PADANG

Abstract

Prediction aims as a supporting point in future decision making which is useful in minimizing errors that may occur. Nana Petshop is a shop that provides pet needs, especially cats, such as food, medicine, accessories and all kinds of other needs. The number of sales that have gone up and down will certainly affect the stability of inventory at Nana Petshop. The purpose of this study is to build a short-term sales prediction system using a Monte Carlo simulation. using six-month sales data (January 26 – July 12, 2022). Monte Carlo simulation is a numerical analysis method that uses random sample numbers to produce a statistical value that is probabilistic. The system design uses the Unified Modeling Language which consists of Usecase Diagrams, Activity Diagrams, Class Diagrams and Sequence Diagrams. Calculation of the prediction results using a Monte Carlo simulation obtains an accuracy value of 85.13%. The highest accuracy is found in Bolt products with an accuracy of 90.83% and the lowest accuracy is found in Universal products with an accuracy of 75.91%. This system helps users in making short-term sales predictions.