Abstract:
Prediction aims as a supporting point in future decision making which is useful in
minimizing errors that may occur. Nana Petshop is a shop that provides pet needs,
especially cats, such as food, medicine, accessories and all kinds of other needs. The
number of sales that have gone up and down will certainly affect the stability of
inventory at Nana Petshop. The purpose of this study is to build a short-term sales
prediction system using a Monte Carlo simulation. using six-month sales data (January
26 – July 12, 2022). Monte Carlo simulation is a numerical analysis method that uses
random sample numbers to produce a statistical value that is probabilistic. The system
design uses the Unified Modeling Language which consists of Usecase Diagrams,
Activity Diagrams, Class Diagrams and Sequence Diagrams. Calculation of the
prediction results using a Monte Carlo simulation obtains an accuracy value of
85.13%. The highest accuracy is found in Bolt products with an accuracy of 90.83%
and the lowest accuracy is found in Universal products with an accuracy of 75.91%.
This system helps users in making short-term sales predictions.
