SISTEM PERAMALAN PERSEDIAAN OBAT MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE (Studi Kasus : Instalasi Farmasi Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Kuantan Singingi)

Abstract

Forecasting medicine inventory is a crucial aspect in healthcare for procurement purposes, aiming to predict future medication needs based on past usage data. This research aims to implement the Weighted Moving Average method in forecasting medicine inventory at the Pharmacy Department of Kuantan Singingi Health Office. The medicine data used consist of 76 different types of medication from January 2020 to December 2022. The accuracy of the forecast was assessed by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for three weights, namely weights 3, 4, and 5. The calculations revealed that the MAPE value for weight 3 had an average of 8.93%, forecasting with weight 4 had an average MAPE of 10.87%, and forecasting with weight 5 had an average MAPE of 12.83%. The lowest error value was achieved using weight 3, with an average MAPE of 8.93% and an accuracy of 91.07%, indicating a very good performance.