Abstract:
Forecasting is estimating the situation in the future through past circumstances.
Forecasting aims to minimize losses that will occur in the future by applying methods
related to forecasting. Sinar Abadi Pharmacy is one of the pharmacies that sells and
has a stock of medicines. Drug supplies are very important for a pharmacy to meet
consumer or customer needs and support smooth business management at Sinar Abadi
Pharmacy. Drug supplies that are too piled up are not a little cost borne for the
procurement of drugs. Inventories of drugs that are too little also cannot met the needs
of consumers or customers. Therefore, it is necessary to have a drug supply forecast
system at Sinar Abadi Pharmacy. Made a Drug Inventory Forecast system at the Sinar
Abadi Pharmacy aims to predict drug inventory at the pharmacy and to design and
create an information system for forecast drug inventory to assist the work management
of Sinar Abadi Pharmacy in obtaining drug inventory information based on the results
of forecast past drug sales used the Triple Exponential Smoothing from Brown. Method
Triple Exponential Smoothing from Brown very suitable for made forecasted things that
fluctuated or experienced tidal waves, meant that the increased or decreased in the
amounted of data usually occurred suddenly and is difficult to determined. The method
stepped carried out in this studied are needed analysis, data collection, data analysis,
and forecasted used the Triple Exponential Smoothing. Next, designed the system used
the Unified Modeling Language (UML), which consisted of designed a system used
Unified cased diagram, class diagrams, activities diagrams, and sequences diagrams.
The forecasted resulted obtained from this studied are the resulted of the forecasted of
the Triple Exponential Smoothing on Acetylcysteine is founded at alpha 0.1 with a
valued of 48 and the lowest levelled of accuracy for forecasted based on MAPE is 42%.
