Abstract:
The availability of currency at Bank Indonesia can be reviewed through the inflow of
currency known as inflow. This study discusses forecasting monthly currency inflows at
Bank Indonesia, Province Riau, where this study uses a univariate time series analysis.
The method used in this study is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (SARIMA) and the Seasonal Error Trend (ETS). In the SARIMA method, the
best models are SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,2,1)12 and ETS models which produces the best
model, namely ETS (M,N,M). The study shows that the best forecast for currency
inflow in Province Riau is obtained based on the error rate using the SARIMA method
