ANALISIS PERAMALAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL TUNGGAL
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Date
2016-04-27
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Abstract
This article discusses the forecasting method that is used to predict the value of
the future. This forecasting uses a single exponential smoothing method which has
one smoothing parameter that satis es a value between 0 and 1 obtained through
trial and error. Then linear programming is used for determining an optimal
smoothing parameter value. This method simply sets the forecast value of future
period with a measure of forecasting error using MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). This forecasting method is implemented
in a case of predicting the sale price of bunch of palm at a company in Riau.
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Keywords
forecasting, single exponential smoothing method, MAE, MAPE