PEMODELAN KASUS PENGGUNAAN ALAT KONTRASEPSI TERHADAP FERTILITAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI KUANTIL

Abstract

Indonesia is a country with the fourth largest population in the world. The results of the population census in 2020 show the total population in Indonesia is 270.20 million people. The rapid population growth in Indonesia raises the problem of population density. The Government of the Republic of Indonesia through the National Family Planning Population Agency (BKKBN) has created a program, namely the Family Planning (KB) program. The family planning program managed by the BKKBN encourages the community to realize the program through the use of contraceptives. This study aims to analyze and model cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using the quantile regression method with parameter estimation using the simplex method. The modeling of cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using quantile regression resulted in different parameter estimates for each quantile and the best model was obtained at quintile 0.6 with a coefficient of determination (𝑅2) of 52%. The results of cases using contraceptives that have a significant effect on fertility are the IUD/AKDR/spiral variable (𝑋2), the natural breastfeeding method variable (𝑋6), the periodic abstinence variable (𝑋7) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9). Other results show that there are independent variabels that can reduce fertility rates, namely the IUD/AKDR/spiral variable (𝑋2) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9).