PENGGUNAAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL UNTUK PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR NON MIGAS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

The exponential smoothing forecasting method is one of the time series data forecasting methods. This study uses non-oil and gas export data in Indonesia for the period January 2015-May 2021 indicating that there are elements of trends and seasonality. Based on the characteristics of the time series, the data obtained were then analyzed using Holt's double exponential smoothing method and triple exponential smoothing consisting of multiplicative and Holt-Winters additives. The best model selection can be done by choosing the minimum forecast error value. This study shows that the additive Holt- Winters method is the best forecasting method that has a minimum forecast error value. The forecast results using this method indicate that the value of non-oil exports will increase for the next period.