REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI PULAU SUMATERA TAHUN 2014-2019

Abstract

The problem of unemployment is an important concern for local governments. The average of an open unemployment rate in Sumatra Island in 2014-2019 was 5.4% which was still above the national target of 4.8%. The factors that are thought to have an effect are population density, economic growth, labor force participation rate, and regional minimum wage. In this study, panel data from 2014-2019 were used in 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra. The scatter diagram of each variable does not show a certain pattern so that spline truncated nonparametric regression was used. This regression is also carried out by looking at the optimum knot point of the generalized cross validation value. The study shows that the variables that have a significant effect are population density, labor force participation rate, and regional minimum wage. The variable that does not have significant effect is economic growth.