PERAMALAN DEBIT ALIRAN SUNGAI MENGGUNAKAN METODE NAÏVE DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Studi Kasus Batang Ombilin)

Abstract

Increased water demand becomes the basis for prediction of critical water availability in the future. It is very important to do a water resource management measures to determine how trends and forecasting river flow conditions in the future. One effort is the management of water resources by conservation efforts. Conservation of water resources is an effort to maintain the existence and sustainability of the state, the nature and function of water resources in order to continue to be available in sufficient quantity and quality to meet the needs of living things, both at present and in the future. According to the conditions above, the river flow forecasting can be a study. Therefor using the availability of discharge data on Batang Ombilin do forecasting of water availability using Naive Model and the Exponential Smoothing: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) to determine the model equations, the value of α and β of the match on Batang Ombilin and the reliability of the model. Inflow data used is a monthly average data year 2003-2010. Forecasting to vary the length of data that is input 1 to 6 years and specifically for SES and DES have the calibration and verification. The result shows that of the three models, which are suitable for the study area is SES than the other models.