Abstract:
Indonesia is a country with the fourth largest population in the world. The results of the
population census in 2020 show the total population in Indonesia is 270.20 million people.
The rapid population growth in Indonesia raises the problem of population density. The
Government of the Republic of Indonesia through the National Family Planning
Population Agency (BKKBN) has created a program, namely the Family Planning (KB)
program. The family planning program managed by the BKKBN encourages the
community to realize the program through the use of contraceptives. This study aims to
analyze and model cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using the quantile
regression method with parameter estimation using the simplex method. The modeling of
cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using quantile regression resulted in
different parameter estimates for each quantile and the best model was obtained at quintile
0.6 with a coefficient of determination (𝑅2) of 52%. The results of cases using
contraceptives that have a significant effect on fertility are the IUD/AKDR/spiral variable
(𝑋2), the natural breastfeeding method variable (𝑋6), the periodic abstinence variable
(𝑋7) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9). Other results show that there are
independent variabels that can reduce fertility rates, namely the IUD/AKDR/spiral
variable (𝑋2) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9).
